Sunday, February 23, 2014

Top 10: Which vehicles will last 200,000 miles?

If you want to own a vehicle that you can drive into the ground -- and then wonder why it refuses to die -- then maybe you should be driving a big truck or SUV.

That seems to be the conclusion of a study from a website that aggregates millions of used-car sales listings around the country. ISeeCars.com went looking for listings of vehicles with at least 200,000 miles on the odometer. It says it analyzed 30 million listings from 1981 to 2010.

Conclusion: In the search for the top 12 vehicles that have clocked at least 200,000 miles, only one was a car. In last place, in a three-way tie, came the Honda Accord. The rest of the list has nothing but trucks -- pickups or SUVs.

The top two vehicles showing the biggest percentage are two bitter rivals, the heavy-duty -- and gas-guzzling -- pickups from Ford and Chevrolet. The Ford F-250 Super Duty came in first. Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD came in second.

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After that came three big SUVs: Chevy Suburban, Toyota 4Runner and Ford Expedition. For long-lasting vehicles, General Motors was the big winner. Seven of the Top 12 vehicles are from GM. ISeeCars.com notes, too, that no European models make the list and speculates that the old ones become more valuable for spare parts as they near retirement.

The vehicles and the percentage of them showing at least 200,000 miles

1. Ford F-250 Super Duty, 4.3%

2. Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD, 3.6%

3. Chevrolet Suburban, 3.6%

4. Toyota 4Runner, 3.5%

5. Ford Expedition, 3%

6. GMC Sierra 2500HD, 2.7%

7. Chevrolet Tahoe, 2.1%

8. GMC Yukon XL, 1.9%

9. Toyota Sequoia. 1.7%

10. GMC Sierra 1500, 1.6%

11. GMC Yukon, 1.6%

12. Honda Accord, 1.6%

Friday, February 21, 2014

Book Priceline Stock Into Your Portfolio Today

Welcome to the Stock of the Day.

priceline 185 150x150 Book Priceline Stock Into Your Portfolio Today Shares of Priceline.com (PCLN) broke through an all-time high after it posted Q4 results. Where will the online travel booking company go from here?

Find out now.

Company Profile

Priceline.com allows buyers to name their own price for everything from airline tickets to rental cars to cruises. With its patented business model, the company generates virtually all of its sales from travel-related services.

In the case of airline tickets and hotel reservations, Priceline.com keeps the difference between the price paid by the individual and what Priceline.com paid for the ticket or hotel room. With travel options in 295,000 accommodations across 175 countries, Priceline brought in $6.8 billion in sales in FY 2013.

Earnings Rundown

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In the fourth quarter, Priceline’s international business increased across the board, including bookings for flights, car rentals and hotel rooms. Total gross bookings advanced 38.8% over last year while international bookings jumped 41.2%. This translated to net earnings of $3.78 million on revenue of $1.54 billion. Adjusted earnings were $8.85 per share. Analysts had expected $8.29 EPS on $1.52 billion in sales so Priceline posted a 7% earnings surprise and a modest sales surprise.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead to the first quarter, the company expects net earnings in a range of $5.02 to $5.52 per share and adjusted earnings in a range of $6.35 and $6.85 per share. Priceline also anticipates 15% to 25% sales growth over Q1 2013.

The Street view calls for adjusted earnings of $7.19 per share on 27% sales growth, so Priceline’s forecast was slightly below analyst predictions.

Even so, this was a strong report overall so PCLN shares gapped up at today’s open.

Current Ratings

Before you buy any stock, you should always run it through my free Portfolio Grader ratings system. PCLN shares have made a 180 in the past year–as recently as last April this was a D-rated sell. Since then the stock has improved on a few fronts.

First, institutional buying pressure has returned to PCLN, indicating that the stock’s risk-to-return ratio is now much stronger. Second, the company has firmed up its financials in a big way: It received As and Bs for every single fundamental metric I graded it on.

PCLN receives a B for it Fundamental Grade and an A for its Quantitative Grade.

Bottom Line: As of this posting I consider Priceline stock an A-rated Buy.

Would you like to check the fundamentals backing up one of your stocks? For more stock grades, please visit my Portfolio Grader website!

Thursday, February 20, 2014

UBS Very Cautious on Defense Stocks: Entire Sector Near All-Time Highs

Despite budget cuts and battles within the Congress, the defense sector has spent the past two years chugging higher despite the potential cost cutting overhang. In a very volatile political year, which will include the crucial midterm elections, the subject is sure to come up again. The defense analysts at UBS think that could be the least of the worries the industry may be facing, especially when the stocks in their coverage universe are trading at historical highs.

In a new research report, the UBS team points out that consensus expectations for the defense industry have moved higher on the back of pension upside, with the stocks getting full credit as multiples expand further. Defense 2014 guidance incorporates about a 10% decline in pre-pension earnings before income taxes (EBIT), worse than 3% decline in 2013, and widely seen as conservative. The analysts think guidance is less conservative than it appears and that the cycle of “beats and raises” is likely to narrow from here. All in all, it may be time for investors to take profits and move on.

When your earnings guidance is better just because your pension obligations are not as onerous, it may definitely be time to sell and look for greener pastures. Here are the current ratings for the top defense names at UBS.

Alliant Techsystems Inc. (NYSE: ATK) is one of just two defense stocks still rated as a Buy at UBS. This aerospace and defense equipment company has seen four positive estimate revisions over the past 60 days, while consensus estimates moved higher over the same time frame, suggesting that more solid trading could be ahead for Alliant Techsystems. Investors are paid a 1% dividend. The UBS price target is $160. The Thomson/First Call estimate is $145.40. Shares closed Wednesday at $129.53.

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) was a top name last year, and valuation may be the main call at UBS. While the company is forging ahead with the new 737 Max and 767 models, continued problems with the 787 Dreamliner are still plaguing the aerospace giant. Investors are paid a 2.2% dividend. UBS rates Boeing at Neutral and has a $140 price target. The consensus target is $153.09. Boeing closed Wednesday at $128.39.

General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) is the only other defense name to be a stock to Buy at UBS. Strong orders from overseas customers are helping to offset the decline in domestic defense spending. While orders have improved, the company's backlog is flat with last year’s numbers. Investors are paid a 2.24% dividend. The UBS price target is $118, and the consensus target is $111.76. The stock closed Wednesday at $105.26.

Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) is a Sell-rated stock at UBS. This again, is most likely a straight valuation call at UBS. With the stock trading near 52-week highs and the ability to drive earnings appreciably higher, the money plain and simple may have been made on this name. Investors are paid a 3.3% dividend. The UBS price objective is $137, and the consensus is at $159.65. The stock closed at $162.65.

Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) is rated Neutral at UBS. The company is the sixth-largest defense contractor by sales. Those sales fell pretty dramatically in the fourth quarter to $478 million from $533 million in the year-ago period. Investors are paid a 2% dividend. The UBS price target is $112, and the consensus target is $119.88, higher than Wednesday’s close of $119.05.

Raytheon Corp. (NYSE: RTN) is also Neutral-rated at UBS. Despite large contract sales to the Saudi’s, the company may very well be another valuation call from the UBS team. Raytheon is also trading right near 52-week highs. Investors are paid a 2.3% dividend. The UBS price target is $90, and the consensus target is $97.28. Raytheon closed Wednesday at $95.16.

Despite last year’s sequester and numerous walls of worry to climb, the defense and aerospace names have shined. The basic call from UBS is that most of the money has been made. Again, when lower pension obligations are the reason earnings are driven higher, and most of the names are trading at 52 week and all-time highs, it just makes sense to take profits. One good thing to do is follow the rule for a winning stock. Sell half and keep half. If it goes higher, you are a genius. If it goes lower, you are also a genius.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Why more businesses may adopt bitcoin

Forget the regulatory crackdown in China. U.S. businesses are helping the controversial cryptocurrency known as bitcoin to make a price comeback.

On Saturday, Zynga, the San Francisco-based social game maker, quietly took to Reddit to announce that it's now accepting bitcoins as a form of in-game payment. The pilot program, which Zynga is working on with bitcoin payment processor BitPay, will be offered for seven games including Farmville 2 and Castleville.

"Zynga is always working to improve our customer experience by incorporating player feedback into our games," the company's Reddit post said. "We look forward to hearing from our players about the bitcoin test so we can continue in our efforts to provide the best possible gaming experience."

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Almost immediately following the news, the digital currency's value began to climb. By Monday morning, it had topped $1,000, then fell below that mark a day later on the online Mt.Gox exchange. The recent increase comes on the heels of a dramatic dip, after regulators in China enacted a crackdown on the digital currency in mid-December that caused BTC-China to stop accepting deposits in yuan. That news had sent bitcoin prices tumbling nearly 50% from a Dec. 4 record-high of $1,238.

But Monday's rally also brings into focus a budding trend: U.S. businesses may be beginning to utilize bitcoin to specifically attract a key consumer base.

"One thing that people haven't focused on with bitcoin is that its users are a very attractive advertising demographic," said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group.

The typical user has been profiled as a tech-savvy male, 25 to 40, with above-average income, commonly residing on one of the U.S. coasts, according to Colas. Indeed, several surveys and reports show similar findings, including data released by Quantcast last April.

Zynga is the lat! est among a growing number of companies adopting bitcoin. Last month, online retailer Overstock.com announced that it would roll out a bitcoin purchasing option, expected in the second half of the year.

Other businesses that have taken to the digital currency include dating site OKCupid, blogging platform Wordpress, social news site Reddit, and billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson's space travel outlet Virgin Galactic. Even a New York City-based real estate firm, CORE New York, is offering clients the option to pay broker fees in bitcoins.

And analysts are beginning to take a closer look at the companies that could gain from bitcoin adoption. Wedbush analyst Gil Luria recently sent out a note detailing the businesses that stand to gain (or lose) the most from cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. Among those Luria believes could enjoy a boost are eBay, IBM and Overstock, which he notes will benefit in part from a "publicity push within the bitcoin community."

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"Nerds, techies — whatever you want to call the early bitcoin adopters — it's is a very high-level demographic that's using this," said C.J. MacDonald, co-founder and chief operating officer of Gyft, a mobile gift card app that offers a bitcoin purchasing option. "We have had some high-profile, high-end retailers saying they want to adopt it to go after this very group."

The San Francisco-based company peddles gift card offerings for over 200 vendors, including Victoria's Secret, Target and Whole Foods. On the Gyft platform, bitcoins can be used to purchase them all.

MacDonald said that over the last six months, since the site added bitcoins, it has welcomed millions of dollars in sales through the digital currency. Of course, the main purchasers are males fitting that "early bitcoin adopter" profile.

So what are they buying? "We see a lot of electronics — Best Buy or Amazon! or Crest! field gift cards," he said. "We even had one guy use bitcoins to buy Crate and Barrel gift cards to furnish his whole house."

Follow Brennan on Twitter @MorganLBrennan.

© CNBC is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Monday, February 17, 2014

It's time to rethink bond allocations

With bond yields near historic lows and poised for a cycle of rising interest rates now that tapering is set to begin, financial advisers might do themselves a favor by looking once again to institutional investors for guidance.

In typical institutional investor fashion, the managers of pension funds, foundations and endowments are deliberately but steadily trimming fixed income exposure in exchange for alternative strategies, including hedge funds.

“The flows into hedge funds is coming from the fixed-income bucket because institutional investors are looking at 2% or 3% returns from bonds compared to 4% to 7% returns from hedge funds,” said Donald Steinbrugge, managing partner at Agecroft Partners.

While it would be difficult to imagine that most financial advisers are not acutely aware of the risks facing the bond market at this point in the cycle, it is interesting to see the pattern unfolding in the institutional space. In essence, the investor category generally viewed as the smart money is moving further and further from the old model, which relied heavily on bonds as portfolio ballast.

Mathematically, it just makes sense that if the bond side of a portfolio is likely to generate a lot less income than it has historically, there needs to be a change to the strategy, the expectations or both.

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“From a financial planning perspective, I don't think there's a lot of software that is taking into account what's about to happen to the bond market, which means you can't build a financial plan the way you used to with regard to fixed income,” said J. Brent Burns, president of Asset Dedication.

“If the bond side is going to generate 2% or 3%, the stock side has to work stronger or the planning has to change,” he added. “The problem with where we are with bonds is that rates are low and could remain low for a long time, which means the safe option doesn't have much return.”

A 2014 Investment Outlook survey of InvestmentNews readers found that nearly 48% of financial adviser respondents plan to decrease exposure to fixed income in the year ahead. Meanwhile, 50% of respondents plan to advise increasing exposure to emerging-markets stocks, and more than 59% plan to advise clients to add to their international equity exposure.

The survey results illustrate a shift away from bonds, but don't provide a clear indication of where those assets might go instead.

It seems like most advisers are just biding their time, and hoping to avoid trouble.

“Like everyone else, we're trying to keep the bond duration as short as pos! sible, but that's probably going to create a new problem as rates start to rise,” said Clinton Struthers, owner of Struthers Financial Services.

“We've also been using things that don't correlate to the bond market like some real estate and preferred stocks,” he added. “The low yields on the bond side of the portfolio has created a demand for things like heavy-dividend-paying stocks where the returns are better, but then you have this big pregnant part of the portfolio that will sooner or later create a new problem.”

It is, in many ways, a riddle without a answer beyond the reality that the old models can't possibly work going forward.

What used to be the safe and easy part of a client's portfolio is fast becoming the area of tremendous risk and uncertainty. Sooner or later, that reality is going to force advisers out of their comfort zone toward models that might include new definitions of safety and allocations to asset classes that are carved out of fixed-income positions.

“I think we're going to see yields move higher as we get through 2014, and that's as much economics related as anything else,” said Jack Rivkin, chief investment officer of Altegris.

“When rates rise, if you're sitting there in a classic fixed-income mutual fund that invests in high-grade securities, you're going to have a problem,” he added.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Meet the 2014 Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Stocks

As many consider Warren Buffett to be the greatest investor of modern times, investors want to know any time there are big changes in the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) holdings. The conglomerate and holding company’s total listed equity holdings were valued at $104.8 billion as of December 31, 2013 versus $92.035 billion on September 30, 2013. Portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler are becoming fixtures at the company as far as their ability to add to positions.

24/7 Wall St. has counted up the detailed holdings on the fly and given color and reference on each holding. While there is a lag here, effectively this is meant to represent the first full look at the 2014 stock holdings of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B).

We have also recently listed the six stocks that Warren Buffett has never sold.

The biggest change we wanted to watch was Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and that was grown slightly here in this last quarter. The gain in Exxon was not as much as we expected, so hopefully he has been opportunistic since the start of 2014.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is a much larger stake, as we have been expecting after warrant conversions. Now we know what the GE position is. It will be interesting to see how Buffett treats this stake going into the upcoming GE spin-off of the US consumer finance unit.

Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE WFC) was lifted as a stake yet again, but the increase was rather small. We can only expect more of the same until we are proven wrong, and some may simply be from put option writing.

Other SEC filings have been made as well, so other stakes may have been made or may have changed since the end of 2013. The full list of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway stocks as of December 31, 2013 is as follows:

Friday, February 14, 2014

What top Olympians and top advisers have in common

Bloomberg News

The Olympians at Sochi have this. Peyton Manning has this. Top performers from around the world in sports, music, and even business have this. Most financial advisers should have this, but they do not. What is it?

No, it's not a list of million-dollar endorsement deals. It's something much easier to obtain. The answer is: great coaching.

Atul Gawande, surgeon and New York Times best-selling author, shares a revelation he had in this piece for The New Yorker:

“I watched Rafael Nadal play a tournament match on the Tennis Channel. The camera flashed to his coach, and the obvious struck me as interesting: even Rafael Nadal has a coach. Nearly every �lite tennis player in the world does.

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Advising athletes can be difficult, especially Olympic Athletes, check out the story

Professional athletes use coaches to make sure they are as good as they can be. But doctors don't. I'd paid to have a kid just out of college look at my serve. So why did I find it inconceivable to pay someone to come into my operating room and coach me on my surgical technique?”

This is an interesting point. Coaching is pr

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Jim Cramer's 6 Stocks in 60 Seconds: AXP STJ MDP FUEL FWM REGN

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Check out Jim Cramer's latest trading recommendations on "Action Alerts Plus".

(Updates from 11:24 a.m. ET with closing information.)

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Here's what Jim Cramer had to say on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" Monday.

Morgan Stanley upgraded American Express (AXP) to buy from hold. Cramer said the stock sold off following a "remarkable quarter," allowing investors a great opportunity to buy the stock. AXP ended higher 1.56% at $88.36.

William Blair upgraded St. Jude Medical (STJ) to buy from hold. The stock is going to move much higher by the end of the year "because of new products," Cramer said. St. Jude closed up 2.56% at $63.39. 

Cramer said Citigroup acknowledged that Meredith (MDP) could buy Time, which will likely be spun off by Time Warner (TWX). Meredith declined 0.16% to $44.26.  Goldman Sachs says to buy Rocket Fuel (FUEL) and initiated its price target at $69. Cramer seemed to like the company, saying it has figured out how to programmatically place ads all over the Internet. Rocket Fuel soared 8.10% to $55.10. Merrill Lynch/Bank of America downgraded Fairway Group (FWM) to sell from hold as analysts are "taking it to the woodshed" following its earnings release, Cramer said. Fairway Group closed unchanged at $8.12. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals'  (REGN) Eylea treatment has had positive results following its Phase III trials. Cramer said CEO Leonard Schleifer "continues to amaze," and suggested that the stock could take out its more recent high near $310. Regeneron rose 1.4% to $304.00. To sign up for Jim Cramer's free Booyah! newsletter, with all of his latest articles and videos, please click here. -- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich. Follow @BretKenwell

At the time of publication, Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS, which he co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Stock quotes in this article: AXP, STJ, MDP, TWX, FUEL, FWM, REGN 

Sunday, February 9, 2014

AOL Backs Off Change to Retirement Plan

When AOL Inc. (NYSE: AOL) CEO Tim Armstrong said on Thursday that the company was changing the way it paid its 401(k) benefits, he blamed Obamacare and two "distressed babies" born in 2012 for the change. By Saturday, Armstrong had changed his mind and said AOL would not make the change.

The proposed change would have paid employees the company's 401(k) contributions in a lump sum at the end of the year. The existing policy paid the benefit every month, which gave employees the added benefit of collecting interest on the company's portion. Following an uproar over the change, Armstrong said on Saturday that AOL would continue paying its contribution monthly.

The justifications Armstrong used for suggesting the change were either wrong or completely tone deaf. He said on Thursday that two employees' babies cost the company $1 million each, driving AOL's benefits costs up and forcing the company to rein in benefits costs. According to transcripts of an interview with CNBC, Armstrong said:

We had two AOL-ers that had distressed babies that were born that we paid a million dollars each to make sure those babies were OK in general. And those are the things that add up into our benefits cost. … For employees leaving to go to other employers, not matching those programs was probably the last thing on the list for us in terms of employee benefits that we wanted to keep. … In the CEO chair, let me give you an example of the decisions we have to make as a company: Obamacare is an additional $7.1 million expense for us as a company. So we have to decide whether or not to pass that expense to employees or whether to cut other benefits.

Blaming two babies is tone deaf and Armstrong apologized for saying it.

Blaming Obamacare is disingenuous. Has AOL never had its health insurance rates go up before? It's pretty easy to toss another dart at the bogeyman of Obamacare. It's not as easy to lay out the real reasons for the increased cost of benefits.

AOL closed Friday at $47.28, up 0.3% on the day and 2.6% for the week. The shares are up 1.4% in 2014 after a 57.4% gain in 2013.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Is JPMorgan Chase Well-Positioned for the Future?

With shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) trading around $56, is JPM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company that provides various financial services worldwide. The company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset management, and private equity. Financial services companies like JPMorgan Chase are essential for well-functioning economies around the world.

Internal JPMorgan Chase emails and computer files being examined by U.S. authorities show that the bank favoured hiring people from prominent Chinese families in order to win investment banking business, the New York Times reported on Saturday. The documents show that a JPMorgan program designed to prevent questionable hiring practices was ultimately viewed inside the company as “a gateway to doing business with state-owned companies in China,” the Times said, adding that it had reviewed copies of the emails and computer spreadsheets.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

JPMorgan Chase stock has done relatively well in the past couple of years. The stock is currently trading near all time highs and looks set to continue this path. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, JPMorgan Chase is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

JPM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of JPMorgan Chase options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

JPMorgan Chase options

25.43%

96%

93%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on JPMorgan Chase’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for JPMorgan Chase look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-112.14%

32.23%

33.61%

54.89%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-7.67%

13.67%

-3.57%

10.16%

Earnings Reaction

-0.01%

-0.30%

-0.60%

1.01%

JPMorgan Chase has seen increasing earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about JPMorgan Chase’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has JPMorgan Chase stock done relative to its peers, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), and sector?

JPMorgan Chase

Bank of America

Citigroup

Wells Fargo

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

29.18%

34.15%

31.27%

29.37%

31.99%

JPMorgan Chase has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

JPMorgan Chase is a bellwether in the banking space that forms an essential part of the United States financial system. The company’s emails and computer files are being examined by U.S. authorities that show that the bank favoured hiring people from prominent Chinese families in order to win investment banking business. The stock has done relatively well in recent months but is now trading near all time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been increasing while revenues have been mixed, which has produced conflicting feelings among investors. Relative to its peers and sector, JPMorgan Chase has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what JPMorgan Chase does this quarter.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Where Will Target Go Next?

With shares of Target (NYSE:TGT) trading around $55, is TGT an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Target operates general stores in the United States as well as online where it sells merchandise at discounted prices. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Credit Card, and Canadian. Target's online presence is designed to enable consumers to purchase products either online or by locating items in one of its stores with the aid of online research and location tools. Groceries, clothing, household items, and general merchandise can be found at Target, making it an efficient shopping experience for consumers throughout the nation.

Banks and big retailers are locked in a debate over the breach of consumer data that gripped Target during the holiday season. At issue is which industry bears more responsibility for protecting consumers’ personal information. The retailers’  argument is that banks must upgrade the security technology for the credit and debit cards they issue. The banks’ counterargument is newer electronic-chip technology wouldn’t have prevented the Target breach, thus, retailers must tighten their own security systems for processing card payments. The finger-pointing is coming from two industries with considerable lobbying might. Their trade groups have been bombarding lawmakers with letters arguing why the other industry must do more — and spend more — to protect consumers.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

Target stock has been pulling back over the last couple of quarters. The stock is currently trading near lows for the year and may need time to stabilize. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Target is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

TGT

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Target options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Target options

25.16%

93%

90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

March Options

Steep

Average

April Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Target’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Target look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-43.75%

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-10.38%

-25.96%

0.81%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

1.95%

2.01%

-0.95%

6.76%

Earnings Reaction

-3.45%

-3.60%

-4.01%

-1.45%

Target has seen decreasing earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about Target’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Target stock done relative to its peers, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), and sector?

Target

Wal-Mart

Costco

Kohl’s

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-12.30%

-7.82%

-6.98%

-12.80%

-8.97%

Target has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Target operates discount general stores across North America where consumers continue to enjoy their shopping experience. Banks and big retailers are locked in a debate over the breach of consumer data that gripped Target during the holiday season. The stock has been pulling back over the last couple of quarters and is currently trading near lows for the year. Over the last four quarters, investors in the company have had conflicting feelings, as earnings have been decreasing while revenues have been rising. Relative to its peers and sector, Target has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Target does the rest of this quarter.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015

Small cap storage and organization system retailer Container Store Group Inc (NYSE: TCS) is the latest hot consumer IPO to�temp�investors�and while there are no direct peers for the quirky but money loosing retailer, could investors just�be better off sticking with retail ETFs like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT) or�more traditional large cap home improvement stocks like�Lowe's Companies, Inc (NYSE: LOW) and The Home Depot, Inc (NYSE: HD)?

What is the Container Store Group?

Starting out in 1978 with just one store, small cap Container Store Group is truly a specialty retail stock as its the original storage and organization specialty retailer and the only national retailer solely devoted to the category with 62 stores across 22 states (a typical location will have around 19,000 square feet and 10,000 SKUs). The Container Store is perhaps most famous for its���mployee-first culture��that has landed the retailer on FORTUNE Magazine's annual list of "100 Best Companies To Work For" for the past 14 years.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Thinksmart Ltd(TSM.AX)

ThinkSmart Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of finance for renting of equipment in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. The company provides consumer and small business financial products at the point of sale through retail partners. It offers SmartPlan, a monthly payment solution for small businesses to finance computers, technology, and office equipments; RentSmart and iSmart, which are rental finance solutions for consumer electronics products; and Fido, a payment plan that allows customers to pay off their purchases with no-interest-ever. The company also provides ThinkSmart business leasing options for small businesses; Infinity; and ThinkSmart Marketplace, an online financial services hub. ThinkSmart Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Metabolix Inc.(MBLX)

Metabolix, Inc., a bioscience company, develops and commercializes technologies for the production of polymers and chemicals in plants and in microbes. It offers a proprietary microbial fermentation system to produce a family of polymers known as polyhydroxyalkanoates under the Mirel brand. Mirel holds biodegradability characteristics; and would be used in a range of commercial applications, including products used in agriculture and horticulture, compost and organic waste diversion bags, marine and aquatic applications, consumer products, business equipment and durable goods, and general packaging materials. The company also develops a proprietary platform technology for co-producing plastics, chemicals, and energy from crops, such as switchgrass, oilseeds, and sugarcane. It has a strategic alliance with ADM Polymer Corporation. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By James E. Brumley]

    If you'd rather spend your hard-earned dollars on some bargain-priced stocks rather than face the Black Friday mania at the malls (wise choice, by the way), then you've come to the right place. And, you may want to start you bargain hunt with Metabolix, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLX) and Unwired Planet Inc. (NASDAQ:UPIP). Both names have been unduly beaten up in recent weeks, and better still, it looks like UPIP and MBLX, are ready to recover... in spades. That's an important detail, as a bargain is only a bargain if it's something actually worth owning. Take a look.

Hot Undervalued Companies To Own In Right Now: Omnicell Inc.(OMCL)

Omnicell Inc. provides automated solutions for hospital medication and supply management primarily in the United States and Canada. The company offers medication use products, which include OmniRx that automates the management and dispensing of medications at the point of use; SinglePointe, a software product that controls medications on a patient-specific basis; AnywhereRN, a software that allows nurses to remotely operate automated dispensing cabinets; Pandora Analytics, a reporting and data analytics tool; and Savvy Mobile Medication System, a mobile platform for hospital information systems. Its medication use products also include OmniLinkRx, a software product that automates communication between nurses and the pharmacy; WorkflowRx, an automated storage, retrieval, inventory management, and repackaging solution; controlled substance barcode inventory management system; and Anesthesia Workstation, a secure dispensing system for the management of anesthesia supplies an d medications. In addition, the company provides medical and surgical supply products, which comprise Omnicell Supply Solution that automates the management and dispensing of medical and surgical supplies at the point of use; Supply/Rx Combination Solution, which manages medications and supplies in one versatile cabinet; Omnicell Tissue Center that manages the chain of custody for bone and tissue specimens; OptiFlex SS, which supplies modules for the perioperative areas; OptiFlex CL that supplies modules for the cardiac catheterization lab and other procedure areas; and OptiFlex MS, a system for the management of medical and surgical supplies. Further, it provides customer education and training, and maintenance and support services. The company was formerly known as Omnicell Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to Omnicell, Inc. in 2001. Omnicell, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Basic guidelines
    In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized. Is the current inventory situation at Omnicell (Nasdaq: OMCL  ) out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's inventory growth to sales growth. How is Omnicell doing by this quick checkup? At first glance, not so great. Trailing-12-month revenue increased 33.5%, and inventory increased 53.7%. Comparing the latest quarter to the prior-year quarter, the story looks potentially problematic. Revenue expanded 35.8%, and inventory increased 53.7%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks OK but not great. Revenue dropped 3.4%, and inventory dropped 2.9%.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Omnicell (Nasdaq: OMCL  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Solar Energy Initiatives Inc (SNRY.PK)

Solar Energy Initiatives, Inc., incorporated on June 20, 2006, is a provider of solar solutions with three wholly owned subsidiaries focused on projects, solar education and distribution of solar products. Its products include solar panels, inverters, solar thermal systems, system design, financial consulting and analysis, construction management, and maintenance and monitoring. The SNRYPower subsidiary is a developer and manager of municipal and commercial scale solar projects. The Solar-EOS Inc subsidiary is engaged in education and continuous improvement of solar energy trade professionals. The SNRYSolar Inc subsidiary is a wholesale distributor of branded photovoltaic and thermal (water heating) systems selling via a network of dealers throughout the United States and the Caribbean. During the fiscal year ended July 31, 2010 (fiscal 2010), the Company sold its interests in SolarEnergy.com, a domain name and digital property back to its original owner. In February 20 11, the sold its Solar (EOS) Division.

Solar EOS, Inc.

Solar EOS, Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Solar Energy Initiatives, Inc. It is an education group dedicated to the creation, training, advancement and continuous improvement of professionals through standard and customized solar training programs and workforce development. It supports the growth of the solar industry through training and education. Solar EOS provides training through its Professional Development Institute and through its Technical Installation Schools, as well as through its Customized Training Programs.

Professional Development Institute offers programs to architects, engineers, general contractors, roofers, plumbers, facility managers and owner�� representatives. The institute offers solar courses to members of the professional communities. Many courses provide needed continuing education units for licensure and professional registrations. Solar EOS is al so an approved Ukulele Society of Great Britain (USGB) Edu! ca! tion Provider. These classes are paid for by the professional or his company when taking the course.

Technical Installation Schools focus on workforce development and public/private partnerships. The school trains the next generation of solar thermal and photovoltaic installers in construction best practices, utilizing hands-on training, real world situations, theory and design coursework, and professional development training. Career Services programs, partnerships and dealer relationships drive the job placement of the students. These courses are paid for by the business rather than the individuals.

Customized Training Programs work through partnerships with universities, community and technical colleges, non profits, corporations, professional organizations, municipalities and workforce redevelopment agencies to meet the specific needs of groups of students. The Company writes the curriculum, provides the instructors, coordinates workshops, dev elops training programs, and hosts webinars and on-demand webcasts. The students do not pay for the course but is paid for through a variety of government programs in the form of a grant. As of October, 2010, the Company entered the fourth class for the Technical Installation School and graduated over 50 students, and trained more than 100 professionals in its Professional Development Institute.

SNRY Solar Inc.

SNRY Solar Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary of Solar Energy Initiatives, Inc. (SEI). SNRY Solar is responsible for two areas: wholesale sales and government programs. SNRY Solar represents several manufacturers of solar systems and components in the Photovoltaic (PV), Solar Thermal / Hot Water (HW) and solar pool heating systems. SNRY Solar inventories and sells these components and systems to a network of installers, dealers and other business types across the United States and the Caribbean. SNRY Solar provides technical information, supp ly coordination and extensive sales support to aide th! ese in! d! ependent! businesses. These support functions include but are not limited to preliminary engineering, scoping and drawings to support sales activity as well as lead generation tools, product recommendation and proposal support. SNRY Solar has developed business models which engage community groups, local, state and federal leaders and grass roots organizations to seek available funds to support job creation through solar.

SNRY POWER Inc.

SNRY POWER Inc. is a wholly owned subsidiary that focuses on developing solar photovoltaic (PV) panel systems for either mounting on the ground or on rooftops. These systems, once installed, generate electricity that is sold to various third parties including utilities, home and business owners, municipalities and other government agencies. In the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) program, the Company builds the PV system at no charge to the host (the municipality or other customer). The system is built on space (either land o r rooftop) provided by the host in exchange for a reduction in the hosts payment for electricity (usually expressed in cents per kilowatt hour (KWh).

The Company is constructing a one mega watt (MW) ground mounted solar PV system on land provided by the Cherokee School District in North Carolina. It has secured construction financing to build 50% of the system and considering selling the system in fiscal 2010.

Solar panels are solar cells electrically connected together and encapsulated in a weatherproof package. The Company purchases from Suntech, GE Solar, BP Solar and other vendors in the Unites States and off-shore. Inverters transform direct current (DC), electricity produced by solar panels into alternating current (AC), electricity used in homes and businesses. Inverters are used in every on-grid solar power system and feed power either directly into the structure�� electrical circuit or into the utility grid. In North America, it sells b randed inverters designed for use in residential ! and comme! rc! ial syste! ms. Inverters it sources include models spanning a power range of 2.5 to 500 kilowatts. Its inverters are manufactured by Solectria, Xantrex, SMA Technologies, AG and PV Powered. Solar thermal systems include a solar collector, which gathers solar radiation to heat air or water for domestic, commercial or industrial use, piping and/or pump(s) to move heated water and a tank for storage. The Company provides dealers and customers with a variety of services, including system design, energy efficiency, financial consulting and analysis, construction management and maintenance and monitoring. Solar electric and solar thermal systems are designed to take into account the customer�� location, site conditions and energy needs.

The Company competes with groSolar, Sunpower, Sunwize, BP Solar, Evergreen Solar and GE Solar.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Akamai Technologies Inc.(AKAM)

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides content delivery and cloud infrastructure services for accelerating and improving applications over the Internet in the United States and internationally. The company offers application and cloud performance solutions to enhance the operation of the applications used by enterprises to connect with their employees, suppliers, and customers. Its solutions include Web Application Accelerator, which enables enterprises to run various applications; and IP Application Accelerator that is designed to optimize the performance, availability, and real-time sensitivity associated with IP-enabled applications delivered over Internet-related protocols. The company also provides video and software solutions that are designed to enable enterprises to execute their large file management and distribution strategies, which include media delivery solution to entertainment industry; and electronic software delivery solution that handles the distribution of s oftware for its customers. In addition, it offers Website optimization services for accelerating business-to-consumer Websites that integrate collaborative content and applications into their online architecture; security and protection solutions that address the Internet security requirements; and network operator solutions, which provide custom solutions to commercial and government customers. Further, the company provides mobile content adaptation solution; and advertising decision solutions that enable advertisers, agencies, publishers, and networks to buy and sell advertising, as well as network data feeds, Website analytics, and business performance management services. It markets and sells its services and solutions through direct sales and services organization; and through active channel partners. Akamai Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Sally Jones]

    Today�� theme is the letter ��,��representing amazing gains on advanced technology stocks in companies beginning with the letter A. In the first half of 2013, billionaire investors were trading these ��-list��technology stocks from the S&P500, including Amphenol Corporation (APH), Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) and Analog Devices Inc. (ADI). These companies were screened for their billionaire stakeholders, high gains, recent insider trading and yield.

  • [By Alex Planes]

    Investors love stocks that consistently beat the Street without getting ahead of their fundamentals and risking a meltdown. The best stocks offer sustainable market-beating gains, with robust and improving financial metrics that support strong price growth. Does Akamai (NASDAQ: AKAM  ) fit the bill? Let's look at what its recent results tell us about its potential for future gains.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Crocs Inc.(CROX)

Crocs, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and children. The company primarily offers casual and athletic shoes, and shoe charms. It also designs and sells a range of footwear and accessories that utilize its proprietary closed cell-resin, called Croslite. The company?s footwear products include boots, sandals, sneakers, mules, and flats. In addition, it provides footwear products for the hospital, restaurant, hotel, and hospitality markets, as well as general foot care and diabetic-needs markets. Further, the company offers leather and ethylene vinyl acetate based footwear, sandals, and printed apparels principally for the beach, adventure, and action sports markets; and accessories comprising snap-on charms. The company sells its products through the United States and international retailers and distributors, as well as directly to end-user consumers th rough its company-operated retail stores, outlets, kiosks, and Web stores primarily under the Crocs Work, Crocs Rx, Jibbitz, Ocean Minded, and YOU by Crocs brand names. As of December 31, 2010, it operated 164 retail kiosks located in malls and other high foot traffic areas; 138 retail stores; 76 outlet stores; and 46 Web stores. Crocs, Inc. operates in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company was formerly known as Western Brands, LLC and changed its name to Crocs, Inc. in January 2005. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Niwot, Colorado.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Ben Eisen and Saumya Vaishampayan]

    Crocs Inc. (CROX) �rose 2.2%. The shoe company was said to be in discussions with buyout firms, including Blackstone Group LP, according to Bloomberg, which cited anonymous sources. The talks appeared to be focused on the firm taking a minority stake in Crocs via which Blackstone could help map out a turnaround strategy.

  • [By Lisa Levin]

    Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) surged 5.40% to $16.78. The volume of Crocs shares traded was 191% higher than normal. Monness Crespi Hardt upgraded Crocs from Neutral to Buy.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Yaletown Capital Corp(YCC.V)

Yaletown Capital Corporation, together with its subsidiary, Freedom Bionics, engages in the design of network-based safety, communications, and cognitive assistance applications, products, and services. The company is based in Richmond, Canada.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Target Corporation(TGT)

Target Corporation operates general merchandise stores in the United States. The company offers household essentials, including pharmacy, beauty, personal care, baby care, cleaning, and paper products; hardlines comprising music, movies, books, computer software, sporting goods, and toys, as well as electronics that comprise video game hardware and software; apparel and accessories consisting of apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns; and intimate apparel, jewelry, accessories, and shoes. It also provides food and pet supplies, including dry grocery, dairy, frozen food, beverages, candy, snacks, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and pet supplies; and home furnishings and d�or, such as furniture, lighting, kitchenware, small appliances, home d�or, bed and bath, home improvement, and automotive products, as well as seasonal merchandise, which include patio furniture and holiday d�or. The company sells its merchandise products under private-labe l and exclusive licensed brands. In addition, it provides in-store amenities. As of January 28, 2012, Target Corporation operated 1,763 stores in 49 states and the District of Columbia under Target and SuperTarget names. Further, it offers general merchandise through its Website, Target.com. The company distributes its merchandise through a network of distribution centers, as well as third parties and direct shipping from vendors. Additionally, it offers credit to guests through its branded proprietary credit cards, the Target Visa Credit Card and the Target Credit Card, as well as through its branded proprietary Target Debit Card. Target Corporation was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Andrew Marder]

    Subpar results from American Eagle
    If there's a recurring theme with apparel retailers this year, it's how much the weather has affected the business. It's no surprise that American Eagle cited the long, cold winter as one of the main problems it faced this quarter. Target (NYSE: TGT  ) rolled out the same reasoning when it announced a less-then-stellar performance yesterday, citing weakness in weather-related apparel sales.

  • [By Douglas A. McIntyre]

    While Amazon is clearly the primary beneficiary of the trend, several other retailers have a massive online presence. The websites of Walmart�(NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) were both in Comscore’s Top 50 Most Visited sites last month.

  • [By Robyn Gearey]

    Cassandra Hubbart, AOL Whether you plan to line up at midnight outside your favorite big-box store or prefer to score online deals in your PJs, the mass of deals and sales on Black Friday can overwhelm even the savviest of shoppers. Fortunately, your smartphone is all you need to make sure you get the very best prices on everything on your holiday shopping list. Download these essential apps while the turkey is in the oven and prepare to save. Best of all, none of them will cost you a cent. Find the Deals TGI Black Friday (free; iOs, Android): Backed by popular deals website DealCatcher.com, this app claims more than 10,000 Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals across 90 major retailers. You can get sneak peeks of "leaked" ads, compare prices, make and share gift lists, and shop sales from your phone. Other similar free apps to consider include Fat Wallet's Black Friday (iOS, Android), BFads (iOS only), Brad's Black Friday (iOS only), and BlackFriday.com's app (iOS, Android). Get the Best Price RetailMeNot (free; iOS, Android): RetailMeNot has saved me more money than any other website or app. Simply search any online retailer before you buy, and more often than not, this site will cough up a coupon for anything from free shipping to 25 percent off. Now it's gone full force into the mobile coupon world. On Black Friday, you can find deals ahead of time and save them to the app, or get notifications when you're near a shop with a special offer. Amazon Price Check (free; iOS, Android): Make sure those sale prices really are the lowest around with Price Check from Amazon.com (AMZN). Just scan the barcode, snap a photo of it, or search for the product and the app will display Amazon's price. You can use it to instantly score a lower price at stores with price-matching policies. Or simply order the item right away from the app. ShopSavvy and RedLaser (both on iOS, Android, and Windows phone) are two more excellent, free apps for comparing prices. Earn Points

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Mutual Federal Bcp(MFDB.OB)

Mutual Federal Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mutual Federal Savings and Loan Association of Chicago that provides various financial services in Chicago. Its deposit products include non-interest-bearing checking accounts, passbook savings, and fixed-term certificates of deposit accounts. The company?s loan portfolio comprises residential mortgage loans, which include one to four-family fixed-rate residential mortgage loans and multifamily residential mortgage loans; loans on deposit accounts; and consumer loans. It also provides insurance brokerage services. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.Mutual Federal Bancorp Inc operates as a subsidiary of Mutual Federal Bancorp, MHC.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Brown Shoe Company Inc. (BWS)

Brown Shoe Company, Inc., a footwear company, engages in the retail and wholesale of footwear. It operates through Famous Footwear, Wholesale Operations, and Specialty Retail segments. The company provides licensed, branded, and private-label casual, dress, and athletic footwear products to women, men, and children. It operates retail shoe stores under the Famous Footwear name that offer shoes of various brands, including Nike, Skechers, New Balance, Converse, adidas, DC, LifeStride, Reebok, Sperry, Asics, Puma, Dr. Scholl�s Shoes, Vans, BOC by Born, Sof Sole, Fergalicious, and Bearpaw. The company also operates shoe stores under the Naturalizer name, which provide women�s footwear, including casual, dress, sandals, and boots under the Naturalizer brand; operates retail stores under Dr. Scholl�s Shoes and Sam Edelman names; and sells its products through Internet retail that include Shoes.com, Famous.com, Naturalizer.com, Naturalizer.ca, and DrSchollsShoes.com, as well as ViaSpiga.com, LifeStride.com, and Ryka.com. As of February 2, 2013, it operated 1,277 retail shoe stores in the United States, Canada, China, and Guam. In addition, the company designs, sources, and markets footwear to retail stores, such as national chains, department stores, independent retailers, mass merchandisers, online retailers, and catalogs. Brown Shoe Company, Inc. was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Moskowitz]

    Skechers (NYSE: SKX  ) has is up 65% year-to-date, outperforming Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS  ) , Wolverine World Wide (NYSE: WWW  ) , Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK  ) , and Nike (NYSE: NKE  ) , which have appreciated 26%, 39%, 62%, and 43%, respectively. Skechers' upside move is justifiable based on the company's recent performance. At the same time, this doesn't mean Skechers will offer the best long-term investment opportunity in this group.

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    Big earnings movers: Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) reported better-than-expected earnings and revenues and raised its guidance slightly, but even posting a new 52-week high early could hold the stock from dropping about 1.3% today. Brown Shoe Co. Inc. (NYSE: BWS) also posted good earnings, but followed with slightly lower EPS guidance and the stock lost about 9%, trading around $21.60 in a 52-week range of $13.68 to $24.78. Another footwear maker, DSW Inc. (NYSE: DSW) put up good results and raised its guidance as well, sending shares up more than 9% to a new 52-week high of $88.73 in the mid-morning.

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Brown Shoe (NYSE: BWS  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: RECORD PLC ORD GBP0.00025 WHEN ISSUED(REC.L)

Record plc engages in the provision of currency management services for the institutional clients primarily in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland. It offers various services comprising currency for return and currency hedging services, as well as provides currency transaction analysis or currency audit services. The company also offers management services to other Group undertakings, as well as operates as a trust company. Record plc was founded in 1983 and is based in Windsor, the United Kingdom.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(SMI)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the computer-aided design, manufacture, packaging, testing, and trade of integrated circuits. It offers a range of technologies from 0.35μm to 65nm with capabilities that include logic, mixed signal/RF CMOS, high voltage, embedded, flash, EEPROM, and CIS technology. The company also provides portfolio of semiconductor intellectual property (IP) blocks from 0.35um to 65nm to support the design needs of customers; ASIC design services; reference flows; mixed-signal/RF PDKs; and multi-project wafer services. In addition, it involves in the design and manufacture of semiconductor masks; and provides assembly and testing, wafer bumping, and wafer probing/testing services. Further, the company offers marketing related activities; operates convenience stores; and manufactures and trades in solar cell related semiconductor products. Its products are used primarily in mobile, network ing, and wireless local area network applications, as well as in consumer and communications products, including digital television, set-top box, mobile, portable media player, and personal digital assistant applications. The company serves integrated device manufacturers, fables semiconductor companies, and system companies principally in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People?s Republic of China.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Namitha Jagadeesh]

    The SMI (SMI) declined 0.1 percent to 8,161.14 at 10:05 a.m. in Zurich. The gauge fell 1.4 percent last week, its first retreat in five weeks. The broader Swiss Performance Index also decreased 0.1 percent today.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones-Provida S.A.(PVD)

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. offers private pension fund administration and related services in the Republic of Chile. Its services include collection for individual capitalization accounts, voluntary savings accounts, voluntary pension savings, life and disability benefits, investment services, and accounts administration. The company also holds investments in private pension fund administrators operating in Peru, Ecuador, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic. As of June 30, 2005, it operated 134 branches. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile. Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida SA operates as a subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Chile S.A.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Udovich]

    While America�� middle class appears to be shrinking with little upward mobility, small cap wealth management stocks Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE: NOAH) and A.F.P Provida SA (NYSE: PVD)�plus larger cap Affiliated Managers Group, Inc (NYSE: AMG) are managing money in places where the ranks of the middle class and the wealthy are still growing strong. Specifically, Noah Holdings Limited is based in China, Chile based A.F.P Provida SA is spreading its footprint into other Latin American countries and the�Affiliated Managers Group is growing�a global footprint. For those reasons, you have probably not heard of these wealth management stocks, but here are some reasons why you might want to consider investing in one:

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Cape Lambert Iron Ore Ltd (CFE.AX)

Cape Lambert Resources Limited engages in the investment, exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral properties in Australia, Africa, Greece, and South America. The company primarily explores for iron ore, copper, gold, uranium, phosphate, lead-silver-zinc, and vanadium. It holds interests in various projects located in Sierra Leone and Guinea, West Africa; Coastal Pilbara region in Western Australia; and Queensland in Australia. Cape Lambert Resources Limited is based in West Leederville, Australia.

Hot Specialty Retail Companies To Own For 2015: Russell Breweries Inc (RB.V)

Russell Breweries Inc., through its subsidiaries, brews, markets, sells, and distributes various beers for pubs, restaurants, and liquor stores primarily in western Canada. Its product portfolio comprises Russell Cream Ale, Russell Pale Ale, Russell Honey Blonde Ale, Russell Extra Special Lager, Russell IP�eh! India Pale Ale, A Wee Angry Scotch Ale, Blood Alley Bitter, Russell Lemon Ale, , Rocky Mountain Pilsner, Fort Garry Dark Ale, Fort Garry Pale Ale, Fort Garry Premium Light, Fort Garry Red, and Stone Cold Lager. The company sells its products primarily to provincial liquor organization entities in the food and beverage industries. Russell Breweries Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Surrey, Canada.

Monday, February 3, 2014

ISM Manufacturing Growth Slows to Almost None

2014 is not looking good for fresh economic reports. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said Monday that its report on business in the manufacturing sector showed much weaker growth than expected. Bloomberg and Dow Jones were both calling for a reading of 56.0%, but the monthly barometer came out at only 51.3% for January.

Monday’s message from the ISM is that economic activity in the manufacturing sector still managed to expand for the eighth consecutive month. This now marks overall economic growth for the 56 consecutive months. That being said, this was far worse than expected, and it is down from 56.5% in December.

The New Orders Index fell a sharp 13.2 points to 51.2%, while the Production Index fell 6.9 points to 54.8%. Inventories of raw materials decreased by three percentage points to 44%, its lowest reading since December 2012.

What stands out is that the ISM said a number of comments from the panel cited adverse weather conditions as a factor negatively affecting their businesses in January. Other comments reflected optimism and increasing volumes in the early stages of 2014.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only these 11 of them reported growth in January:

Plastics & Rubber Products Primary Metals Textile Mills Wood Products Printing & Related Support Activities Fabricated Metal Products Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Transportation Equipment Machinery Furniture & Related Products Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products

These seven industries reporting contraction in January:

Nonmetallic Mineral Products Petroleum & Coal Products Apparel, Leather & Allied Products Miscellaneous Manufacturing Chemical Products Paper Products Computer & Electronic Products

Top Cheap Companies For 2015

We have also provided the ISM’s table to show the trends and the formal number of each. As a reminder, a figure above 50 signals growth and one of less than 50 signals contraction.

ISM JAN 2014Source: ISM

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Nine Stocks that Could Double in 2014

The bull market run in 2013 was so strong that some analysts are concerned the gains of October to December might run out of steam in 2014. And indeed, with such big gains last year, the current stock market predictions for this year might be a bit excessive. Still, as the old saying goes, there’s always a bull market somewhere.

With that in mind, 24/7 Wall St. has identified potentially undervalued or underappreciated stocks that could provide investors with handsome returns in 2014. Some of the stocks we’ve featured could even double in value if they live up to their full potential. But, as always, investors beware. None of these companies would pass the suitability for a widows and orphans investing strategy, and it’s even possible that some of these could flop.

Another risk when looking at stocks with the potential to double is that they are almost never your blue chip dependables. Most of the companies we selected are either in turnaround or are underappreciated by investors. In order to prevent unlimited risks, investors can use put and call option to hedge their investments.

The list of stocks that could potentially double in price in 2014 includes a mixed bag of companies. We selected a struggling chip maker, a coal leader, a rocket engine player, an oil and gas player, a gold and silver miner, a biotech company, and an alternative energy engine maker. There's also a company involved in home automation and another in wireless hauling equipment and solutions.

These are the nine stocks that could double in 2014.

Saturday, February 1, 2014

The Best Sector For The Long Haul: Which Stocks Look Good Today?

English: Budweiser beverage delivery truck, Wa...

Just as 2013 was a strong year for the broader stock market, it was also a solid year for consumer stocks. And, just as there was significant variation between the performance of the broader market's sectors, so too was there a good deal of differentiation within the consumer stock arena.

While consumer cyclicals are up more than 35% over the past year, according to Morningstar, consumer defensive stocks (consumer staples) are up only about 18%. Perhaps that's not too surprising, given that economic news was better than expected for the most part in 2013 — the sort of environment that helps encourage more risk-taking on cyclical plays.

But that doesn't mean you should shun consumer staples as we move into 2014—even if you think the economy is going to continue to gain steam. In his most recent edition of What Works on Wall Street, quantitative investing guru James O'Shaughnessy examined decades worth of historical data and found that, over the long term, the best performing sector of the market has been consumer staples.

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From 1968 through 2009, O'Shaughnessy found that staples stocks averaged compound annual returns of 13.6%, beating the next-best sector (financials) by 1.2 percentage points per year.

And, staples had the second-lowest standard deviation out of the market's 10 sectors; the only one that was less volatile was utilities. "Industries that make goods and services that people have to buy, regardless of economic circumstances, are bound to do well whatever the economic conditions," O'Shaughnessy wrote, also noting that the sector is filled with companies that have wide economic moats and strong brand recognition. In addition, the most fundamentally sound stocks within the consumer staples sector tended to do even better than the sector as a whole.

About two years ago, I wrote a piece examining O'Shaughnessy's study and offering a handful of stocks that my Guru Strategies—investment models that are based on the approaches of O'Shaughnessy and other investing greats—were high on at the time. Since then, they are up 43.2% on average, outpacing the S&P 500 by a few percentage points despite the consumer staples sector lagging last year.

What staples stocks are my models high on now? Interestingly, they like a couple of the same picks from two years ago, as well as a bunch of others. Here's a look at five of their favorites.

Unilever (UL): This Netherlands-based maker of home goods and food products counts Lipton, Hellmann's, Dove, Slim-Fast, and Vaseline among its big brand names. It was one of the staples I highlighted two years ago. Since then it has actually lagged, returning about 24%, but my O'Shaughnessy-inspired model still thinks it's a good value play. The strategy likes Unilever's size ($117 billion market cap), $2.97 in cash flow per share (nearly double the market mean of $1.62), and solid 3.6% dividend yield.

Anheuser-Busch InBev Anheuser-Busch InBev SA: Most known for its signature Budweiser Budweiser and Bud Light beers, this Belgium-based international beverage firm has more than 200 beer brands now in its fold and also makes soft drinks. It has taken in more than $41 billion in sales in the past year.

BUD is another favorite of my O'Shaughnessy value model. It likes the company's size ($157 billion market cap), $7.60 in cash flow per share, and 3.1% dividend yield.